During the 20th century,
the Earth’s climate and ecosystems underwent overwhelming qualitative
and quantitative changes as a direct result of human activity. Our
population has grown to over six billion and carries an ever increasing
demand for energy derived from natural resources. The average individual
energy consumption of modern humans is 200 times that of our primitive
ancestors. Presently, 85% of the energy used by our civilization
is obtained from the burning of fossil fuels—primarily carbon,
petroleum and natural gas. Combustion of these natural resources
emits CO2 into the atmosphere, where it is then incorporated into
the natural carbon cycle. In the last 150 years the atmospheric concentration
of this gas has raised ca. 100 ppm due to human activity.
As a greenhouse gas, CO2 causes a “thermal blanket” effect
in the atmosphere. Other greenhouse gasses, including methane, nitrogen
oxides and freons, have increased in parallel to CO2 since the Industrial
Revolution. There is mounting evidence that our emission of greenhouse
gasses causes a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere. It can be
affirmed with a probability of 95% that the mean annual temperature
increase of the last 100 years, ca. 0.75ºC, is higher than that
observed in the last 1,000 years (Mann et al., 1998) and that 2005
has been the year exhibiting higher annual average air temperatures
over this period (NOAA, 2006). This year records the highest temperature
within a group of the last thirteen years (1995-2007) encompassing
the warmest instrumental records of global surface temperature (since
1850) Furthermore, widespread thawing has been observed in mountainous
regions as well as in the north and south poles. These effects are
concurrent with the thermal expansion of seawater which is causing
global sea levels to rise, e.g. an increase of 25-30 cm during the
20th century in the eastern US coast (Kearney et al., 2002).
The changes occurred so far may not appear to be very significant
when considered in the human perspective of daily change and the
current variability of meteorological processes. However, when they
are examined by reference to natural climate evolution it turns out
that strong climate modifications are underway. Thus, increments
of 100 ppm of CO2 are equivalent to what occurred naturally every
time that our planet underwent transitions from glacial to interglacial
periods. Moreover, the present CO2 concentration (388 ppm) is higher
than any observed in all of the interglacial (280 ppm) or glacial
(190 ppm) ages of the last 650,000 years (Siegenthaler et al., 2005;
Petit et al., 1999). Straightforward consideration of these simple
facts evidences a need for understanding the planetary processes
that may be modified due to this greenhouse gas increase and for
anticipating the changes that may occur in the next future.
Evaluation of the present climate change from the perspective of
the past climatic history may seem a paradox if the problem is approached
from the restricted point of view of a few disciplines. A recurrent
question that derives from such limited perspective is whether the
presently observed change could be explained by natural fluctuations.
However, the information obtained from instrumental records is too
short in time as to be able to provide sufficient comprehensive perception.
A multidisciplinary point of view that combines past and present
studies opens the possibilities for a full understanding of the implications
of the present climate change, the human influence on it and the
forthcoming evolution. This approach constitutes a scientific challenge
since it crosses over different ways and time and space scale differences
to address the study of natural processes.
Current evidence indicates that we may be close to the cusp of a
much greater transition. The International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) predicts that by the end of the century, atmospheric CO2 levels
may have reached between 400 and 790 ppm depending on the emission.
These increments will give rise to best estimate mean temperature
increases of 0.6 and 4.0ºC with respect to 1980-1990, and increases
in sea levels of between 18 and 59 cm. These predictions
are based on extrapolation of present climate data considering accumulative
effects. Reorganizations of the climate system either at regional
or global scale could involve stronger climate modifications approaching
those included within the abrupt effect concept. |