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Changes in precipitation
regimes and thermal patterns are important determinants driving possible
alterations in plague and disease behaviour in forests and agrosystems.
Extreme thermal events can reduce forest ecosystem production by
as much as 30% in continental Europe (Ciais et al. 2005) and mild
winters interrupted by periods of intense cold can alter ecosystem
function, weakening the system and facilitating the spread of plagues
within the affected populations. Nevertheless, gradual temperature
changes may be accompanied by subtle but progressive changes in the
plague and disease distribution area, which in turn may be facilitated
by the increased mobility of people and goods at global scale (Anderson
et al., 2004). The degree in which the decline of certain forest
masses can be attributed to extreme climate events and the consequences
of these events on the possible changes in plague and disease behaviour
will be determined in the zones in which the phenomena have been
observed to be important in recent years such as in the central and
eastern Iberian Peninsula. Impacts attributable to extreme thermal
events (cold/heat) in various forest ecosystems within relatively
large geographical areas (thousands of hectares) and at different
points in the drought cycle will be studied. The changes in plague
behaviour for pines and Juniper will also be considered in the light
of some of these extreme events.
Anderson Pamela K., Andrew A. Cunningham,
Nikkita G. Patel, Francisco J. Morales, Paul R. Epstein5 and
Peter Daszak (2004) Emerging infectious diseases of plants:
pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers.
TRENDS in Ecology and Evolution 19(10): 535-544. |
Ciais, P, Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier,
A., Ogée, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer,
C, Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., Noblet, N., Friend, A.D., Friedlingstein,
P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G.,
Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J.M., Papale,
D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M.J.,
Schulze, E.D., Vesala, T. and Valentini, R. (2005). Europe-wide reduction
in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature,
437 529-533. |
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