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Impact of climate change
in the coast, primarily beaches, deltas and estuaries, is related
mainly to sea level variation which originates redistributions of
the coastal environments and depositional architectural changes.
It is also closely related to wave climate and storm surge variations
that may, jointly or independently from sea level change, be one
of the main reasons for coastal erosion or flooding. Independent
quantification of all processes at different temporal scales (seasonal,
inter-annual and geological) is needed for the characterization of
the specific climate effects. Wave storminess (extreme waves) and
storm surge (extreme levels) variation will be analyzed at seasonal
and inter-annual time scale based on the application of statistical
models (Mendez et al., 2006a,b) to numerical and instrumental data
sets. This goal will be undertaken using a wide array of techniques
that provide independent information of all factors and their interactions.
More specific tasks will involve: a) preparation of maps of coastal
sedimentary environments and detailed physiographic and tectonic
aspects using digital land models, LIDAR bases and digital photogrametry,
b) quantification of the input rates and sediment fluxes to the coastal
zone, volumetric calculations of sediments accumulated in the coast
and measurements of the present fluvial systems, c) determination
of the basement depth and geometry and 3D architecture of the coastal
deposits using geophysical techniques and probe sampling and d) integration
of the data and elaboration of geometrical and evolutionary models
for the study areas that may be related to climatic and eustathic
changes and terrigenous inputs. The study of marine terraces recording
ancient sea level rises in coastal areas from the Iberian Peninsula
and the Canary Islands will allow to analyzing the evolution of coastal
dynamics during times of ice-sheet melting in response to natural
climate change. In particular previous studies in estuaries, such
as the Ria de Vigo, Doñana, bahia de Alcudia (Mallorca), etc
allowed to reconstructing with great detail the evolution of coastal
morphology over the last 10,000 thousand years as the sea level was
rising. Gradual and abrupt coastal zone changes will be studied in
estuaries, beaches and deltas. The dynamics and evolution of highly
sensitive sedimentary material on the Spanish Atlantic and Mediterranean
coasts will be analyzed on different time scales (seasonal, inter-annual
and geological) taking into account both natural and anthropogenic
determinants.
Mendez, F.J., Menendez, M., Luceño,
A., Losada, I.J. (2006). Estimation of long-term variability
of extreme significant wave height using a non-stationary POT
model. Journal of Geophysical Research, AGU, Vol. 111, CO7024,
doi: 10.1029/2005JC003344. |
Mendez, F.J., Menendez, M., Luceño,
A., Losada, I.J. (2006). Modeling the seasonal, decadal and
secular variability of extreme sea levels. Journal of Atmospheric
and Oceanic Technology, AMS (in press). |
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